Royals Continue To Spend Poorly - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Royals Continue To Spend Poorly Stuck

Posted on November 21, 2012 at 08:46 AM.

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It is easy to pile on to Royals General Manager Dayton Moore. He was put into a no-win situation when he took over the Royals top job back in 2006. The Royals were one of the teams that were swallowed up by Major League Baseball�s salary boom of the mid-1990�s. It may surprise some that the Royals actually had the highest payroll in Major League Baseball in 1994. Once the strike hit and the division between small markets and large markets widened, the Royals could no longer compete in the salary game.

After the death of owner Ewing Kauffman, the Royals were in flux. They drafted poorly and could no longer afford premier free agents. The result of the salary explosion and the failure to react quickly has put the Royals organization in a seemingly endless black hole. Moore took over as General Manager after cutting his teeth with the Atlanta Braves under longtime GM John Schuerholz. Moore preached patience and placed an emphasis on the draft and player development.

The result has been six very long years during which they�ve never won more than 75 games in a season. But, Moore has kept his promise of developing a farm system. Recently, the system has produced Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, and Billy Butler. There is still more help on the way, although the pitching help is at least a couple of more seasons away, if the Royals can keep their young arms healthy..

Moore has done a very good job with the Minor League system and his dealings in the international market. But, his Major League record is well below average. Moore has fallen into the practice of handing out contracts to flawed veterans in an effort to look busy. Gil Meche, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Guillen, Brett Tomko, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Freel, Sidney Ponson, Jason Kendall, and most recently Jeff Francoeur have been acquired to fill the Major League roster during Moore�s tenure. Some didn�t cost much, but Meche and Guillen did. And, even worse, some got or are getting far too much playing time.

All along, Moore tried the sell the idea of sticking with the process and having faith in the process. There is no question that he has drafted well, but there has always been the question of whether or not Moore could surround his young core of talent appropriately. Last season, the Royals starters ranked 11th in the American League in terms of WAR, weighing in at 7.7 WAR. The rotation ranked 13th in innings pitched, and 10th in ERA and FIP.

While the the young offense struggled, the rotation was truly the downfall of the team that actually had some preseason expectations of competing for a division title.

Moore�s reaction to the Royals� problem has been swift. He acquired Ervin Santana from the Angels. He claimed Chris Volstad off of waivers. And, he re-signed mid-season acquisition Jeremy Guthrie to a three year, $25 million deal. Taking a chance on Volstad is exactly the type of low risk, high reward moves Moore should have been making all along.

But, Moore is paying a premium for his veteran hurlers. Guthrie�s deal is structured so that he makes just $5 million this season. That is because Santana will be getting paid $13 million. Add in Francoeur's $6.75 million, and Bruce Chen�s $4.5 million, and Moore will be paying his veterans almost $30 million in 2013, which will be 40 to 50 percent of the total team salary. This is a trend that Moore has never seemed to have shaken. Paying Santana as an ace is a gross overpayment for a pitcher with his track record. Committing to a three year deal to the 34 year old right hander Guthrie is even more confusing.

Jeremy Guthrie is a perfectly acceptable Major League pitcher. Despite a low strikeout total, Guthrie has carved out a solid Major League career after a difficult start to his career as a Cleveland Indian. Once the Orioles acquired him off of waivers, Guthrie has proven to be a tick above a league average pitcher. In five years in Baltimore, Guthrie compiled a 4.12 ERA in 983.1 innings. He averaged 8.9 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 5.6 K/9.

He was shipped to Colorado before the start of the 2012 season and predictably struggled. Moore rescued him and was rewarded with one of the best stretches of Guthrie�s career as the right hander went 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 14 starts. Every other statistic fell in line with Guthrie�s career line. Guthrie is a dependable pitcher as he has pitched 175 or more innings for six consecutive seasons. He is remarkably consistent in his peripheral numbers.

There is certainly value in never missing a start, throwing strikes, and being able to give length on most nights with league average results. He will help improve the Royals by a slim margin.

Guthrie is entering his age 34 season. He isn�t nor has he ever been overpowering. He isn�t an extreme groundball pitcher and he flirts with the line of striking out too few hitters to have long term success. Yet, he has managed to be successful. He is, however, going to be 34. He will be 36 by the end of the deal.

The odds Guthrie maintaining his current production are long. The idea of the Kansas City Royals giving a three year guarantee to a pitcher who has been league average for his entire career, has never been dominant, and doesn�t expect to age all that well is foolish. It may be foolish, but that is exactly where the Royals are.

On paper, it looks like the Royals addressed a need to have better, more reliable starting pitching. Guthrie is certainly reliable. But, the Royals made the mistake of over-committing. They gave three years and $25 million to a pitcher who would be a solid number four starter on most contending teams. He is the type of pitcher that most teams would offer a one year contract. Perhaps, they might add a second year. But no team would offer three.

The Royals will be paying Ervin Santana and Guthrie $17 million this season. Perhaps putting that money into other areas or even making a run at a premier pitcher like Zack Greinke. Instead, Moore has spent his money on two pitchers who only slightly improve his team.

Major League Baseball is like every other sport in terms of success breeding duplication. The Orioles won the Wild Card last season without an ace and with a pitching staff that was more or less replaced. But, their two best starters are not big money commitments. Jason Hammel had just one year left on his deal when the Orioles acquired him, making $4.75 million. Wei-Yen Chen was given a three year deal, but he was only 26 years old and the most he will make in a season for the duration of the deal is $4 million. Every other pitcher who started a game was either under team control or acquired with just 2012 remaining on his deal.

The Royals look like they are trying to somewhat duplicate the Orioles� veteran pitcher approach, but they are overpaying to do that. These are precisely the types of moves that have held the Royals back. And, because of the money committed, these are the types of moves that will continue to hold them back. The Orioles acquired veteran starters cheaply; the Royals are using a significant portion of their payroll.

Even how they structured Guthrie�s deal is nonsensical. He�s making the least amount of money this year, the season that he figures to most closely duplicate his success. His salary jumps to $11 million in 2014 before finishing at $9 million in 2015. If Moore was actually looking have Guthrie match the value of his deal, the structure would�ve been far different.

So, in 2014, he will have an $11 million pitcher on the decline. It�s a move that will hurt the Royals because of the payroll it will take up and for the probability that he can�t provide anything close to the value of the contract in years two and three.

There are reasons why the Kansas City Royals have been stuck in almost two decades worth of losing play. Some are unfortunate circumstances, but Dayton Moore�s track record in filling out his Major League roster is one that continues to hold back the organization. He has done a tremendous job building the farm system. It is a system that is beginning to show at the Major League level and a system that should provide hope for Royals fans.

But, Moore has never showed any sort of plan at the Major League level. At some point, the Royals young talent will have to be surrounded by the right types of veterans. So far, Moore hasn�t shown that ability. And, that is the one ability a small market team needs in order to be legitimate contenders.